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Currency vs Brexit: GBP Losses

Discussion in 'Random Chit-Chat' started by Agent-347, Jun 24, 2016.

  1. HellCat

    HellCat Great Teacher

    Theresa May laughing like some insane combination of a Disney villain and a trained seal as the Tories outlined how the latest budget will again punish the poor has gone viral enough that even Japan have noticed.
     
    Blaize likes this.
  2. HellCat

    HellCat Great Teacher

  3. Lord Bacchus

    Lord Bacchus Kiznaiver

    Buzz201 likes this.
  4. mrclt1994

    mrclt1994 Hunter

    I wouldn't call it jumping ship, I'd just call it going where you want. I'm a leaver but would take the opportunity to live in Malaysia 'cause I like it and it would increase my career prospects but I am not desperate to move either. Good luck on your new venture, though.
     
  5. HellCat

    HellCat Great Teacher

    I'll probably be called hysterical again but the word via consistent Westminister leaks is May will crash us out of the EU after the German elections in September, with a narrative ready to blame the EU.
     
  6. HellCat

    HellCat Great Teacher

    Many have heard but next Wednesday has been announced as the trigger date.
     
  7. Raxor

    Raxor Completely Average High School Student

    Not long now. I am hoping that it wont drop too much (and that most of the fall has already been factored in).
     
  8. kuuderes_shadow

    kuuderes_shadow Magical Girl

    I'd be surprised if it dropped any significant amount at all when the announcement comes - unless new details come with it (from any quarters). After all, everyone now knows that that announcement is coming on that day, so any shift should have been built in by that time. It's what happens after that that could send the pound flying either down or up.
     
  9. HellCat

    HellCat Great Teacher

    Worth highlighting that many banks and finance centres (key to the strength of our economy) announced they will dump UK the second Article 50 is triggered, having already done all the prep to move to the continent.

    So I'm betting on a significant hit next Wednesday.
     
  10. kuuderes_shadow

    kuuderes_shadow Magical Girl

    Source on that? It seems like a rather irrational act to me. After all, we're still in the EU for another 2 years after article 50 is triggered, and it would be far easier to make any shifts out of the UK more gradually. If they want to do it in one go then it would be better to either wait until we know what the end deal is likely to be or just go ahead and do it now if they're really ready. The only reason that they would want to time it with the article 50 announcement is to make a political statement.

    And sudden, big shifts in a currency only happens as a result of something unexpected - better or worse than expected news on the economy or economic predictions, or some big event happening that wasn't anticipated, or happening at an unexpected time.

    When you have a known event happening at a known time then the expected effects of it will be factored in ahead of time. This is probably a large part of the reason why the timing of article 50 being triggered was announced beforehand (as sudden spikes in the valuation of a currency in either direction are not a good thing).
     
  11. HellCat

    HellCat Great Teacher

    I'll have to dig up the specific sources but pretty much every financial service has said it if they haven't moved already. Global business has no interest in losing time and profit because halfwit Tories claimed an insane mandate from beer belly nationalists. Davis even said last week he was expecting our financial passporting to be lost.
     
  12. kuuderes_shadow

    kuuderes_shadow Magical Girl

    It's not them moving that I'm doubting. It's the timing you're claiming. The fact is that Article 50 being triggered really doesn't affect the financial institutions or the things that affect the currency. The things that would affect them would be:
    - The referendum being declared in the first place and the way the debate went.
    - The country voting for brexit.
    - The government announcing elements of its negotiating strategy. Or not announcing them, thus making firms and investors nervous.
    - When the bill for brexit passed, thus guaranteeing that Article 50 would be triggered, and more or less setting in stone that Brexit will occur (this is by far the smallest of these six)
    - Elements of the eventual deal becoming clear during various stages of the brexit process (this is probably more significant than all the others put together, but will likely happen gradually).
    - Brexit actually happening.

    The actual triggering of article 50 doesn't have any direct effect other than put in a timescale for the latter two things.
     
  13. Watanabe Ken

    Watanabe Ken Kiznaiver

    I thought they said they'd cut cooperation tax if they didn't get access for financial services and banks to the single market.
     
  14. ayase

    ayase Mushi-shi

    The Tories are the party most in bed with and supported by banking and finance, I highly doubt they plan to lose all their friends' business, or that those businesses plan to lose the opportunity to turn the UK into an offshore tax haven for themselves.

    Don't get me wrong, I'd be glad to be rid of the influence of the banks over our economy and therefore our politics (I'd have thought more people on the left would be, but apparently globalism and sucking up to multinationals are left-wing positions now, so Hell if I know), but I get the feeling this exodus is not going to come to pass.
     
  15. HellCat

    HellCat Great Teacher

    Word leaked is that May is very much a Home Office leader turned PM. She has no eye for business and is single mindedly focused on lowering immigration. I know EU migrants who have lived here for years and are being denied allowing to stay for the flimsiest of reasons.

    May is our very own Trump. A nasty little xenophobe who wants it all and has not the brains to achieve it, so she'll **** over the population to get what she can. Her political career is hardly glowing.
     
  16. Buzz201

    Buzz201 Cardcaptor

    So you're attacking May for essentially doing what many people (sadly) want her to do? I am no fan of Theresa May or Brexit, but attacking her personally and just generally being rude achieves nothing. You're embodying the rude, entitled, ignorant left the papers think you are, all over some damaging "leaks" you didn't even cite. "Leaks" are very often not what they appear to be.

    It's not worth it, don't attack Theresa May, attack her policies.
     
  17. ayase

    ayase Mushi-shi

    Whether she aspires to it or not I can't say, but Theresa May doesn't currently have absolute power over government decision making. She needs the support of her party to govern, and I can't see a party as pro-big business (and with as many wealthy backers who take that stance) as the Tories following her lead if she decides that it's worth sacrificing the economy just to drive down immigration. If that's even what she wants, which again I don't actually know is the case.
     
  18. kuuderes_shadow

    kuuderes_shadow Magical Girl

    I don't see any leaks, nor any need for leaks. Theresa May IS a Home Secretary turned PM. Fact. And she definitely has brought her attitudes and approach over from her time as Home Secretary. Including her past record of trying to attack immigration numbers even if it damages the country to do so. Although it's worth noting that her attitudes were similar before she became Home Secretary as well.

    That said, I'm pretty damn sure that she isn't a xenophobe. I don't think she could care less about who lives in the UK. But members of the Conservative Party want to cut immigration, and she has always placed the wishes of members of the Conservative Party above all else. And it's worth noting that a lot of members of the Conservative Party don't really care about big business either. And she certainly isn't a Trump: she hasn't flooded her cabinet with people with a reputation for extremism as he did, she isn't a narcissist like he is, and she doesn't routinely post things that are demonstrably lies on twitter. Oh, and she, unlike him, has plenty of experience in politics and thus understands how things work.

    I think ayase needs to realise, though, that the majority of Conservative MPs (including Mrs May) are a very long way away from the neoliberal big business lovers like George Osborne. Indeed, the diferences in opinion within the Conservatives is far greater even than that within Labour. Yes, the Conservative Party receives most of its funding from big business - just as the Labour Party receives most of its funding from the unions movement. Theresa May is no more in thrall to the business world than Tony Blair was to Bob Crow.

    Anyway, no sharp changes in the value of the pound today as I expected.

    And nice to see Theresa May acknowledging that this whole thing is acting directly against the wishes of her own constituents for the first time since this whole sorry affair started. Even if it took the SNP to get her to do so.
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2017
  19. HellCat

    HellCat Great Teacher

  20. serpantino

    serpantino Adventurer

    I really despair for Brexit. I'm not against the idea but for it to work our government needs to be smart and strong and our populace need to be united.

    Brexit was never going to be an easy event in the short term but the constant moaning about everything and the repeated 'we warned you' from remainers is doing nothing to help whatsoever; nor is the gloating from brexiteers.