Currency vs Brexit: GBP Losses
- Thread starter Agent-347
- Start date
- Status
bailey1985
Vampire Ninja
I was up at 5 o'clock this morning I looked on my tablet and it said Brexit won . I didn't believe it at first , I thought there's no way they must have it wrong , They said we wouldn't find out until breakfast I thought paper must be getting ahead of itself . Put on the telly the pound had Dropped 10% , brexit was it was in the lead they were talking like it already won at the time . Now I'm trying to think of ways that will make the next few years a little bit easier . The only thing I have come up with so far is find a new electric company will give me a fixed rate for 2 years incase the energy prices do go up because of the exchange rates .
Ath
Pokémon Master
Ugh, everything just feels hopeless now. Never felt so disconnected from my country. Can feel the miserable mood down here in London. I don't know what's more depressing, the prospect of a Boris/Gove dream team as PM/Chancellor or the imminent Labour no-confidence civil war. I'd like to think that UKIP will now fade to irrelevance now that they've achieved their goal, but that'd be terribly naive of me.
I'm going to eat loads of chocolate tonight, get some sleep and then prepare for months, if not years, of uncertainty, infighting and misery.
I'm going to eat loads of chocolate tonight, get some sleep and then prepare for months, if not years, of uncertainty, infighting and misery.
Vashdaman
Za Warudo
Heartbreaking result, truly.
The right wing ruling British elite will now be free to eff over the working people and disenfranchised people without the EU holding them back. They'll be free to **** over the very same people they masterfully duped into voting for this. You almost have to admire the evil genius slickness of the Leave campaign.
I still can't really believe this result. I've never wanted to leave this country more.
The right wing ruling British elite will now be free to eff over the working people and disenfranchised people without the EU holding them back. They'll be free to **** over the very same people they masterfully duped into voting for this. You almost have to admire the evil genius slickness of the Leave campaign.
I still can't really believe this result. I've never wanted to leave this country more.
ayase
State Alchemist
To be fair, the right wing ruling European elite are doing a pretty good job of effing over the non-working and disenfranchised people of Southern Europe by themselves because they decided a unit of currency was more important than their well-being.Vashdaman said:
That said, I didn't want to see us leave. I wanted to see a reformed unified Europe that worked for the good and equality of its people - but I honestly don't know how realistic it was to believe that could ever happen. It never seems to happen in a single country let alone a block of dozens of them with different political landscapes. All things considered I feel less bad about this happening than I expected to, maybe I just thrive on chaos and want to see it all burn now. Watching the Pound and the stock markets fall off the cliff like that was thrilling, part of me wanted it to just keep going.
demonix said:
Yeah it's pretty much gone up by 2p which isn't the end of the world (given we've been stuck with $1 = 70-71p for about 5-6 months).
elaniel
Vampire Ninja
Y-San said:
I know many people who agree with your stance Y-San. The way the EU are handling the countries within itself is a problem. I think they need to take a look and see why over half of the population of the UK (and I'm sure plenty of other countries feel the same) are so upset to the point they'd rather get out and take such a massive risk. Instead of a lot of the threats that are going around now about the way the EU will handle the UK exit and will screw the country over, they need to look at their policies and the way they govern the EU as a whole. It's clearly not working and I think in the long run, the decision for the UK to get out is a good one. I think it's the fear of the unknown at the moment.
I think a lot of Leave voters are lumped in with the extremists that were wanting to "boot the foreigners" and that's no the case for a lot of people at all. Many are happy for immigration to continue as is, but are tired of the EU governing the UK in such a way they feel they have no say. The best case scenario would have been UK to be in the EU, but with significant changes with the way it operates, but the EU would not allow that.
ayase
State Alchemist
That's a fair enough stance to take, although it's not like our national government is much better in that regard. Cameron only called for a referendum in the hopes it would buy him votes at the general election and because he thought he'd easily win, not because he actually cared about democracy. And there's no need to be sorry, I'm not going to pretend to be a democrat or that I care particularly about the will of the people, but I'm not going to whine about the result like it's going to change anything either. Things are the way they are for now, practicalities are more important than platitudes at this stage in the game.Y-San said:
It was very difficult to argue the case for Europe from the left because of their recent treatment of Southern Europe and neo-liberal economic policies. Corbyn clearly struggled to do so from a POV of having been critical of the EU's capitalist tendencies in the past - He was really between a rock and a hard place dealing with the fact the views of the members and the parliamentary party are so clearly different.Y-San said:
Vashdaman
Za Warudo
But is it any easier to argue for the case of not being in the EU from the left? Is there really any hope leaving Europe could make our own governance less neo-liberal? I'm definitely with you in that those two aspects of the EU you mentioned I also dislike, but I just couldn't see how leaving was ever going to improve on that and not just hurt a lot more people.
I'm also sad to see the world putting up more borders again and retreating into the shell of nationalism. I'm finding it a really hard situation to be hopeful about.
I'm also sad to see the world putting up more borders again and retreating into the shell of nationalism. I'm finding it a really hard situation to be hopeful about.
kuuderes_shadow
Thousand Master
Y-San said:
Depends what reforms you want. There's a lot of support from other EU countries for making the EU more efficient, for instance, or for simplification of regulations. Plenty of the latter in particular has already happened. On the other hand demands for abandoning free movement of labour, which is one of the key things that most europhobes* want to get rid of, were never going to work.
As for the rest of the EU voting against us, I think that's mainly because of:
- The UK voting in lots of UKIP MEPs whose approach to Europe ranges from "never bother showing up" to "vote in ways specifically designed to irritate as many people as possible". They would certainly not support anything to improve the EU.
- The Conservative party having left its group within the EU parliament, and thus no longer having the strong position that being part of a group brings.
Then again, the UK party that always worked by far the hardest for things like efficiency savings within the EU were the Lib Dems. And for the last few years there has only been one of those... Catherine Bearder still manages to single-handedly get more done than all 22 UKIP MEPs put together, though.
*I use this word instead of eurosceptic in order to reserve the latter for real eurosceptics.
It's got nothing to do with them electing right-wing governments. It's because the governments in question are abandoning/threatening to abandon the rule of law.
As for anti-democratic... the EU is more democratic than the UK government with our broken voting system and unelected second chamber.
Zin5ki
Railgun
I think there is an additional sinister element to this miserable situation for those of us with foreign-sounding names. I cannot provide any proof that the rise of nationalism exposes us to greater unfounded hostility, but I cannot expect that the current state of affairs does anything to help us.Vashdaman said:
mrclt1994
Hunter
More borders won't be going up, it will be the immigration policy that will change - all those currently here will be able to remain here. Paris have said that Brexit won't affect the border deal between us and France so no change there due to the bilateral treaty signed in 2003 (the Calais mayor can make as much noise as they want, it won't change).
What I find strange is that when Sunderland and Newcastle upon Tyne announced there results at around midnight, that's when the £ went to $1.33 (it was at $1.50 but that was due to speculative trading of the £ earlier that week - it had previously settled at around $1.43 for quite some time), at the time when it was announced that Brexit had won, the £ was already up to $1.38 and carried on fluctuating for the rest of Friday and finally settled at $1.37 which is still a fall but going by the £ having been sat at around $1.43 for a while, it's only $0.05 difference and i suspect we'll see more stabilising next week as more world leaders and big businesses clarify their response to the vote to leave - if Obama's U turn on us being 'at the back of the queue' is anything to go by, it will be interesting to see how many of the remain camps' buddies will make similar backtracks. I think the biggest currency issue is that of the Yen, rather than the dollar.
I also find it funny that the PLP are using this as an excuse to boot Jeremy out for not getting out the labour vote - even though half of them were trying to stab him in the back previously, they expect him to be fully on their side to remain? LOL. I think they need to look back on themselves as they are considered a part of the elite that a lot of leave voters have lashed back at with this vote. They're trying to wave responsibility and use it as a way to get back in and probably hope for a second coming of Tony Blair come next leadership contest.
We all knew there would be a short-term shock but given the response from the German finance ministry and others, things are looking a bit more positive for negotiations, when they do begin. Even more surprisingly, in response to the EUs demand for the UK to initiate article 50 quickly, Angela Merkel has said there's no need to be nasty.
What I find strange is that when Sunderland and Newcastle upon Tyne announced there results at around midnight, that's when the £ went to $1.33 (it was at $1.50 but that was due to speculative trading of the £ earlier that week - it had previously settled at around $1.43 for quite some time), at the time when it was announced that Brexit had won, the £ was already up to $1.38 and carried on fluctuating for the rest of Friday and finally settled at $1.37 which is still a fall but going by the £ having been sat at around $1.43 for a while, it's only $0.05 difference and i suspect we'll see more stabilising next week as more world leaders and big businesses clarify their response to the vote to leave - if Obama's U turn on us being 'at the back of the queue' is anything to go by, it will be interesting to see how many of the remain camps' buddies will make similar backtracks. I think the biggest currency issue is that of the Yen, rather than the dollar.
I also find it funny that the PLP are using this as an excuse to boot Jeremy out for not getting out the labour vote - even though half of them were trying to stab him in the back previously, they expect him to be fully on their side to remain? LOL. I think they need to look back on themselves as they are considered a part of the elite that a lot of leave voters have lashed back at with this vote. They're trying to wave responsibility and use it as a way to get back in and probably hope for a second coming of Tony Blair come next leadership contest.
We all knew there would be a short-term shock but given the response from the German finance ministry and others, things are looking a bit more positive for negotiations, when they do begin. Even more surprisingly, in response to the EUs demand for the UK to initiate article 50 quickly, Angela Merkel has said there's no need to be nasty.
kuuderes_shadow
Thousand Master
mrclt1994 said:
With regards the timing of the drop:
- The initial drop came when Sunderland and Newcastle declared their results. On a narrow remain win (which the markets had been expecting) these was expected to be a strong victory for remain in Newcastle and a narrow leave win in Sunderland. Instead there was a strong leave win in Sunderland and a narrow remain one in Newcastle - both about 8% or so lower than would be expected, and all but confirming that the entire North East outside of Newcastle would be for leave.
- This drop was then recovered as other results came in suggesting that other areas weren't following the same pattern and were coming in much closer to what would be expected.
- The real drop kicked in as people started to realise that leave was likely to win.
- Any sudden and steep drop in currency value (and this was the steepest drop in any reserve currency in floating exchange rate history) will always go to far and then bounce back a bit. That is what happened here.
With regards to the difference, the real difference should be with if remain had won. Now, we will never know where exactly it would have ended up, but we can be certain that it would have been comfortably above the $1.49 region, which was reached solely from people expecting that remain was likely to win, but still repressed down by fears of leave and by the pure uncertainty factor which had been around and growing stronger ever since the process started. I was personally expecting 135-140 yen per pound after a leave vote and 175-180 yen per pound on a remain*. The actual outcome was in my expected region but at the very top end, so if we assume that the very bottom end of the remain region would be accurate then we're still 20% down on where a remain vote would have put us. Which is a devastating amount for an economy with such a big current account deficit.
As for where things go from here, yes the pound will recover somewhat from where they are now as the uncertainties get resolved over the next few years. They may even pass the levels which they were at a little while before the vote - or even above the levels from just before the vote if things are managed well on our side (which from the markets perspective mean "getting as close to the results of a remain vote as possible", with entering the European Free Trade area, adopting EU regulations and accepting full free movement of labour to and from the EU) - which will probably enable some economically illiterate leave supporters to claim to themselves that actually we somehow gained from a leave vote. On the other hand, if we lose free movement and somehow fail to negotiate trade deals then things could get very very bad. Due to the isolationist attitudes and desires of most of the leave campaigners, this is not a possibility that can be written off.
Meanwhile, levels of foreign investment in this country will be at a low point from here until everything is resolved and will never reach the levels they would have been at otherwise. However, again they have been down ever since the referendum was announced (and suppressed before that by various troubles in the Eurozone ever since the financial crisis) and again a result of "exactly the same as being in the EU just without any say over EU policy" (in this case also with minimal knock-on effects on the rest of the EU also required) would enable investment levels to return to close to what they would have been, which could even be above what it was before. But still slightly below where a remain vote would have put us.
With regards the PLP, as someone who has never voted Labour in their life (and following this year's police commissioner elections I've even technically voted Conservative now), while I like a lot of what Corbyn stands for, I don't see him as Prime Minister material. He's too accustomed to doing things on a very small scale, and completely fails to show the passion that he undoubtedly has. Neither of these have changed with him becoming party leader, and neither are what a Labour Party going into a general election would want from their leader in order to optimise their results. I would, incidentally, expect a Labour Party election to result in John McDonnell becoming the leader, which isn't what the PLP want at all, but McDonnell would be much better party leader material than Corbyn.
*I didn't/don't have estimates for the Dollar markets as I don't buy things in Dollars so don't pay enough attention to it to be able to come up with any.
P.S. on a side note, Tim Farron has announced that the Lib Dems will fight the next general election on a platform of arguing for Britain to be (remain or become as appropriate) a member of the EU. This is, of course, with the usual proviso that Lib Dem policy must be agreed by party membership rather than dictated by the leaders.
ayase
State Alchemist
From a left-wing social freedoms point of view, EU was undoubtedly a good thing. The problem is, the people on the traditional left who feel hard done by due to the EU (working class and former-working-now-underclass, thanks Thatcher) aren't the same people who are making use of those freedoms. They aren't interested in going to live or work in another country. While I personally think it's a shame they largely weren't interested in the opportunities the EU offered, I'm in no position to tell others how they should be living their lives. A lot of people are much more connected to their home towns and families than I am.Vashdaman said:
Economically though, whether actually anything to do with the EU or not, poorer working families or those struggling to find work have not seen their lives get better over the last 30 years. You could reel off a list of things the EU has done for us like in Life of Brian but the fact is this section of the population has never seen the benefits. It has been the middle class who have reaped the benefits of EU membership, not the working poor. They've seen the continued decline of traditional industries and generations of unemployment. Will leaving the EU make things any better? I think the mindset people around here had, especially since the steelworks closure, is that it couldn't really make things any worse.
I hope they do mount a challenge. The membership will vote again, and they'll vote for Corbyn again. Put up Chuka and watch him fall as flat on his face as Liz Kendall. Blairism is a dead horse they need to stop trying to flog back to life. You're quite right - It's not often I find myself agreeing with Peter Hitchens but when he pointed out yesterday that the result clearly showed how Labour MPs don't represent their voters at all I could only nod in agreement. Many of them are as much a part of the disconnected metropolitan middle class as Tory MPs are. You only have to look at the general election map - Outside of London the number of red areas that voted leave is sobering.
I'm not entirely sure that standing on a platform of ignoring the democratic will of the people is really going to do the Lib Dems any favours (these calls for a second vote because young people failed to bother or "regret" voting the way they did are frankly one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard). Especially after the whole tuition fees, ignoring the will of their own voters thing. Hey, maybe this could be their new thing, Liberal Democrats: The party that doesn't listen.kuuderes_shadow said:
mrclt1994
Hunter
Anyone else watching the Marr Show this morning?
I will be - looking forward to what many of them have to say. Sajid Javid seems to have almost switch sides and has completely denied the punishment budget that himself and Osborne put together. And of course we've seen the lies unravel for the leave side also. I also find it quite interesting how quickly BOTH sides have taken U turns on quite a few things, I have never seen anything like it.
I will be - looking forward to what many of them have to say. Sajid Javid seems to have almost switch sides and has completely denied the punishment budget that himself and Osborne put together. And of course we've seen the lies unravel for the leave side also. I also find it quite interesting how quickly BOTH sides have taken U turns on quite a few things, I have never seen anything like it.
kuuderes_shadow
Thousand Master
If that's the mindset then they could hardly be more mistaken. Such industries and the people who work in them depend on trade more than any others. A lot of Britain's factories are owned by firms from Japan or India who set up in the UK specifically because it was a good place within the EU to do business. In fact of the socio-economic groups I think it's the C2s (skilled manual workers) who gained the most out of EU membership.
That said, I think the DE group (unskilled manual labour and long-term unemployed) gained the least from it. According to a poll by Lord Ashcroft, though, the C2s were just as pro-Brexit as the DEs were.
Chuka won't stand for Labour leader. The reasons he pulled out last time will apply to any and every leadership contest in the future as well. If he did I do think he would do considerably better than Kendall did, but I don't believe that it would be enough to beat a candidate from the left of the party.
Personally I'm torn on Tim Farron's position. It's certainly true that there are those who would wish for the UK to be part of the EU (and I would count myself among this group), and it's certainly true that there are no other parties in England and Wales that can represent this view. Claims that such a viewpoint is undemocratic and untenable are about as reasonable as claims that UKIP should stop saying they want the UK to leave the EU if the vote had been a tad under 52% to remain. In other words, not. That said, I don't see that approach paying off as it's just not going to happen, and as such would much prefer the party to be pushing for the "in the EU in all but name" position (free movement of labour, in the free market, be a member of all the other related European institutions, sign international deals alongside the EU and so forth), which is a much more likely outcome and probably more productive in ensuring the UK gets a relatively neutral result from all this and preventing a terrible one. It might win less votes, though.
- Status